⏳ Thank You for Your Patience - My apologies for the delay in getting out Issue #007. My original intention was to send these out once every two weeks. However, there were so many events happening so fast that I was worried the newsletter would be out of date within hours after I sent it, so I kept delaying. I hope you enjoy Issue #007:

CURRENT EVENTS

☢️ Nuclear Talks - Since the beginning of April, Iran and the US have held 3 rounds of negotiations about Iran’s nuclear program and US sanctions. The talks have been held once a week on Saturdays. The first and third session were in Oman, the second was in Rome.

The Iranian delegation has been led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (who has immense experience in nuclear negotiations with the US in multiple administrations). The US delegation has been led by United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, a figure very close to Donald Trump who has been entrusted to conduct most his sensitive foreign policy negotiations.

During the first and second meeting, Araghchi and Witkoff discussed their overall agendas for the talks, desired timelines, and big picture issues. In the third meeting, they were joined by technical experts and got into specific details of a potential agreement. The start of technical talks can be interpreted as a major sign of progress.

Iran’s currency has strengthened almost 25% since the talks starts (from a low of 105,000 toman to a dollar to around 79,900 toman to a dollar). In the past 24 hours its value has decreased slightly due to the market reacting to the tragedy in Bandar Abbas.

Putting the Talks in Context

The speed of these talks has been remarkable compared to previous cycles of negotiations. Even in the most intense period of the JCPOA negotiations in 2014 & 2015, the sides met at a frequency of once per month, not once per week. To have gone from letters between the sides to detailed technical negotiations in a matter of a month is quite impressive.

Araghchi alluded to this after the conclusion of the most recent talks, stating that the experiences from previous talks allow them to move through these ones quickly.

It should also be noted that unlike previous talks, these ones only involve Iran and the US (through Oman as an intermediary). Discussions between two sides, rather than 7, are more straightforward.

Putting together public comments from Trump, Araghchi, and others, it is clear that the negotiations are making progress towards an agreement. Both sides believe the other is serious about wanting to quickly reach a deal and not trying to trick them. Both sides believe a deal is possible, but far from guaranteed (this wasn’t the case four weeks ago).

On the other hand, there clearly are still areas of disagreement. As the talks get more advanced on the technical level, they will get more difficult. This is natural. Both sides appear to show some level of flexibility, but also have red lines. It’s very possible that they cannot find a mutually acceptable deal, but I would put the chances of one much higher than I expected a month ago.

Inside Iran, all factions of the government are united in supporting the talks. There have been a few minor figures who have expressed skepticism, but they are not serious power brokers. The level of unitedness is far more than was the case during the JCPOA negotiations.

One other big difference between these talks and the JCPOA talks is that unlike in 2015, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE now strongly back an end to the crisis between Iran and the US. It has been fascinating to see Araghchi give updates on the situation to almost every regional country (for example see this post he made after the second round of talks). This is the traditional European powers (UK, France, Germany) have not been involved the talks at all yet.

Before these talks, there were several rounds of negotiations between Iran and world powers during the first two years of the Biden administration to see if there could be a full return to the JCPOA by all sides. According to Iranian and American sources, on two occasions, they got very close to an agreement, but they ultimately didn’t reach the finish line.

Going Forward

Every few days, there are articles in the media that look at public interviews made by either Iranians or American officials and make claims about the current state of the talks (discussing things like what is on the table & where disagreements are). The problem is these articles all contradict each other. As do the public interviews.

In my opinion, both sides are engaged a careful public relations campaign to fight off their domestic opponents (particularly in the US where opposition to any agreement with Iran will be fierce). But they are not negotiating in public. I think one can safely ignore most the detailed claims on the state of the negotiations. All we can say with certainty is that there are disagreements but they are making progress.

While it’s important not to overstate the chances of an agreement, one also shouldn’t disregard how much far both sides have gotten despite the odds.

Back when Trump took power in January, there were major doubts about his ability to reach a deal with Iran, even if he wanted one. Iran had steadfastly refused to even consider talking with his first administration after it left the JCPOA. Getting both sides to talk at all seemed far fetched.

Beyond this, most analysts believed Trump’s blunt, “madman” style of public rhetoric was ill suited for talks with Iran. And they believed his team did not have the proper experts to deal with the very complicated disagreements between Iran and the US.

And yet, three months later, both sides have agreed to an agenda, are talking very frequently, and have started getting into the detailed areas of disagreement.

Ultimately, it is still possible that Congress or Netanyahu sabotage an agreement, geopolitical developments lead both sides to no longer desire one, or they just can’t reach mutually acceptable terms. But, as Araghchi frequently puts it, there is good reason for “cautious optimism”.

🚑 Tragedy in Bandar Abbas

At around noon on Saturday April 26, there was a fire and subsequent explosion at Shahid Rajaee Port near the city of Bandar Abbas. At least 40 people were killed and 1000 injured as a result of the incident.

Bandar Abbas is located on the coast of the Persian Gulf, near the Straits of Hormoz. There are two ports in the city - Shahid Rajaee, where the incident happened, and Shahid Bahonar. Shahid Rajaee port is currently Iran’s most advanced and handles a greater volume of trade than any other.

There are many suspicions about the explosion being a result of foreign sabotage because it happened at the same time as the third round of talks between Iran and the US were going on in Oman (Araghchi claimed he wasn’t aware of what happened until the negotiations finished a few hours later).

There is a widespread claim in media outlets that this explosion may have been linked to a shipment of sodium perchlorate from China (which can be used for missiles). I am very skeptical of this, because the color of the smoke was orange-brown, which would indicate ammonium nitrate, a different chemical. I laid out my views on this and some other misconceptions about the explosion in detail here. An official investigation on the cause of the incident is still ongoing.

Iranians all throughout the country lined up to donate blood to the victims of the incident. Firefighters from many different cities worked hard all night to put out the fire.

MORE HEADLINES

• Last week, Iranian airlines added four planes to their fleet. Iran Air bought two Airbus A300-200’s. Caspian Airlines bought two Boeing 737-300s. While there have been cases in the past where Iran managed to buy used airplanes through sanctions evading methods, four planes at one time is unusual and the Iran Air ones were done in a very open manner, not secretly. This led to speculations in the Iranian media that OFAC may have given permission for these transactions as a trust building measure for the nuclear negotiations.

• During a family show on IRIB’s Channel One, a sacred figure for Sunni Muslims was insulted. Less than 24 hours later, an apology was issued, the Broadcast Manager of Channel One was fired, and criminal charges were filed against 8 people.

CULTURE

Koocheh Festival in Bushehr - The 4th Annual Koocheh Music Festival started in Bushehr on Friday. This came less than a week after the organizers of the long awaited event had come on social media and claimed the festival was cancelled because they could not get a permit. Yet less than 24 hours later, after the president himself intervened, the dispute was resolved and they declared the event would be going on.

While Koocheh is the biggest festival of its kind in the country, why is it so important that the president feels like he needs to get involved?

To understand the answer to this, one has to understand both the history of the festival and the broader changes happening in the country in the past few years.

The 1st Koocheh Festival was held in March 2018. It was notable because it was held completely independent from any government or for profit organization. The organizers included several prominent artists. It lasted several nights and focused on the local music of different parts the country (Hormozgan, Loristan, Khuzestan, Azerbaijan, Gilan, Kurdistan, and Bushehr).

In September of that year, the same group held an event in Mumbai, India, which got a very good reception.

In March 2019, 2nd Koocheh Festival was held in Bushehr again. Videos of the event, with traditional music performances from different areas of Iran held in an lively atmosphere in the city center (with beautiful old buildings in the background) went very viral.

From here, there were delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other issues. The 3rd Festival was not held until the Spring of 2024. This time, it went even more viral. It seemed like the entire country was sharing clips of the performances. Koocheh got a massive reception & almost every performance was sold out. It got so big that some authorities got uncomfortable and ordered them to end the festival early, without holding the closing ceremony.

Earlier in 2025, two sister festivals were held - Banderati in Chabahar and JazZirati in Kish. These included performers not just from Iran, but neighboring countries.

And now, the 4th Koocheh Festival is being held. The number of people that have gone to the city is far more than the festival has tickets. I heard that on the first night, every hotel in the city was sold out and basic goods like water bottles completely ran out in the city (because there were so many tourists from other cities).

The festival is not without its opponents. There have been protests in both Tehran and Bushehr itself by conservative groups who say it is just an excuse for immoral public dancing and gender mixing. Some other people have criticized wealthy Tehranis who are coming to the event just to party and don’t bother to understand the local culture.

At the end of the day, culture wars over concerts is not anything new in Iran. However, the president getting directly involved to this level is unusual. Clearly, as a reformist, he felt that not allowing the festival to go forward would reflect quite negatively on his administration.

In the past, things like this were considered secondary, minor issues - but now they are seen as primary needs, just wants. This is yet another reflection of the realignment in values happening in the country - things that are not in news headlines but more important in the long run than the negotiations or anything else.

Woman and Child - Saeed Roustaee’s new film "Woman and Child" has been selected for its world premiere in the 79th Cannes Film Festival. Almost all of Roustaee's films, including "Life & a Day", "Just 6.5", and "Leila's Brothers" have won both international & domestic awards.

ACROSS THE WEB

• Koocheh Festival: Follow the Koocheh Festival’s official page for photos and videos from the event here.

• Unity in the Face of Tragedy: A beautiful video about the Iranian people coming together to donate blood and help each other after the tragedy in Bushehr very touching.

• A Powerful Show of Mourning: At the end of the second night of the Koocheh Festival, the organizers made a show of traditional Bushehri mourning in respect for the victims in Bandar Abbas.

• Different Perspectives on Negotiations: As different political factions argue about what “the real Iranian people” think of the nuclear negotiations (as if a single view exists in a society of 90 million people), I made a post breaking down some common narratives about the talks that currently exist among Iranians.

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