✍️ On a Personal Note - When I first started this newsletter this year, I never imagined in my worst nightmare that I’d have to one day write a post about a new war being imposed on Iran. I was originally planning on sending out Newsletter #009 in mid June, but was functionally incapable of doing anything during the war & only recently have been able to return to some semblance of normalcy. I appreciate everyone who reached out to me and asked about my loved ones & also hope every person reading this is ok and their loved ones are safe and secure.

CURRENT EVENTS

The War - In the early hours of the morning of Friday June 13, Israel launched series of attacks on Tehran and other cities. One of their first actions was assassinating several of the most important Iranian military commanders & nuclear scientists, in some cases in their homes. This included the commander in chief of the IRGC Hossein Salami, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces Mohammad Bagheri, the IRGC aerospace force commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and former head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Program Fereydoon Abbasi.

On the first day, it appeared Israel had somehow sabotaged Iranian air defenses (whether through a cyberattack or forces on the ground). Mossad operatives also had smuggled precision weapons and established at least one drone base inside Tehran. Their operatives used small drones for assassinations and suppressing Iranian air defenses throughout the conflict.

There is debate among people whether Israeli jets flew deep over Iranian territory or if they launched missiles from the air from border regions in Iraq and Azerbaijan. But there definitely were significant numbers of advanced Israeli drones that flew over Iranian cities. At least 8 were shot down. Again there are debates whether these were launched all the way from Israel or from Iraqi Kurdistan and Azerbaijan.

I do not intend to fully cover every event in the war. The moments that stand out the most for me include the strike on Tajrish, one of north Tehran’s most famous tourist areas, the attack on the famous State TV Glass Building while broadcasting live, Donald Trump writing a threatening tweet telling 10 million residents of Tehran to leave their homes, the internet being cut off, and the strike on Evin Prison that killed over 100 guards, prisoners, and families of prisoners.

Throughout the war Iran also launched wave after wave of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli cities. Some got through multiple layers of air defenses and hit areas all over Israel, including some strategic sites and research facilities. In the end, the US directly entered the conflict and dropped fourteen 30,000 pound GBU-57 MOP bunker buster bombs (that had specifically been designed for hitting Iran’s fortified sites) as well as other weapons on Iran’s main enrichment sites in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Then, after Iran retaliated with 14 missiles at the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar (where at least one missile did hit a target, despite initial US claims), the war suddenly ended.

During these 12 days, at least 1060 Iranians were killed, including 126 women and 41 children. Additionally, almost 6000 people were wounded. According to the Tehran municipality, in Tehran alone 8,200 homes were damaged.

What Happened Afterward?

There is widespread pessimism in Iran among both government officials and ordinary people about how long the peace will last. This has led to an even more intense feeling of uncertainty in the country.

The Pezeshkian administration appears to be laying the grounds for a new series of negotiations with the United States. Both the foreign minister and president have alluded to this in their remarks. It remains unclear what the other side is demanding from Iran and whether they will stick to a 0 enrichment line (or will for even further concessions).

There were not any widespread shortages of basic goods or disruptions of services during the war, beyond long lines for gasoline in the days that large numbers of people were leaving Tehran. However, the state of the economy post war is not well. People are hesitant to make investments or large scale purchases due to uncertainty in the future. This appears to be leading to a massive wave of layoffs, particularly in the travel and tourism sector.

Another significant event after the war has been massive deportations of Afghan nationals that were living in Iran. According to some reports, almost half a million Afghans have been deported since the end of the war. This has often been through undignified ways, such as raids catching Afghan workers at their place of work and then immediately putting them on buses and sending them to the border (and separating them from their family members). There have been security reasons given for these mass deportations, with allegations that several Afghans had helped Israel with their covert operations inside Iran during the war.

What Was the Response in Society?

During the war and afterward, I’ve read hundreds of posts and pieces each claiming to have the secret of exactly how the Iranian people felt about the war.

In reality, there are many different groups in Iranian society, and the idea that there is one fixed view of what the war is like is ridiculous. I will say that people generally do not appreciate being bombed. While many people grew very angry at Israel and the US due to the war, others also directed their disappointment at their own government for going down a path they believed led to this result.

It appeared that Israel was counting on their attacks somehow causing a popular uprising among Iranians to overthrow the government. At least this what they claimed rhetorically, though I’m not sure if they genuinely believed it would happen. A few prominent opposition groups outside Iran went all out in supporting Israel’s attacks and asking people to rise up (despite them previously claiming they would never support a war on Iran). What is clear is that did not happen & the idea that it would was based on a profound misunderstanding of Iranian society. And (in my view) cost any group supporting these attacks a great deal of support.

I wrote two long posts about my own observations of how I saw different groups of Iranians responding to the attacks. Of course these aren’t representative of everyone, but were patterns I saw among large parts of society:

1 - The first was written during the first week of the conflict, looking at different stages of responses among many Iranians during the first few days of the war.

2 - The second was written after the war, about whether there was a “rally around the flag” effect seen after the conflict.

None of this is universal. There was also anger, fear, and uncertainty. In one incident in Hamadan after the war, two people were wounded and one injured after security forces shot at them at a checkpoint (they claim their car didn’t stop). During their funeral, there were anti government slogans chanted.

Many different politicians, including former President Rouhani and others, have also issued statements about their view of the current situation and the need for certain reforms in the political system and society.

CULTURE

Signs of Nationalism - Ever since the end of the war, there has been an explicit emphasis by the government in different ways on Iranian nationalism. From one perspective this is not new. The Iranian government has never rejected symbols of Iran’s pre-Islamic history or mythology. In my view it’s not even possible to fully separate out Iranian culture from religion. However, it has certainly put a much greater emphasis on normally secular aspects of Iranian culture than previously was the case.

A day after the war, the Tehran Symphony Orchestra held a concert (organized by the Ministry of Culture) at the iconic Azadi Square where dozens of musicians played different nationalist songs. This is not the first time in history this has happened (there was a similar concert held at Ferdowsi’s tomb this year for Ferdowsi day), but such an event, particularly with instruments in the open, is not usual either.

In Tehran’s Vanak Square, there was a mural of the mythological hero Arash the Archer along with a poem that translates to, “For Iran, I place my soul in the bow / The arrows of Arash tear through the sky”, while showing Arash shooting missiles instead of arrows.

Elsewhere there was a billboard of the famous inscription that shows the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before Shapur I, but with Netenyahu instead of Valerian.

A few days later there was another campaign, with pictures of different pre-Islamic kings and the phrase “Soldier of Iran” written next to them. This level of emphasis on ancient kings of Iran and symbols from its mythology was more characteristic of the Pahlavi dynasty than the Islamic Republic (though it has been years the Islamic Republic has been gradually taking steps in this direction).

During the early 2010s, former president Ahmadinejad and his controversial father in law Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei had tried to promote a similar ideology (which they called “Maktab Iran”), which put a strong emphasis on Iranian nationalism. At the time, this was rejected both by prominent reformists and conservative members of the system establishment. Looking back at them 15 years later, it seems that they were ahead of the curve.

Muharram Ceremonies - The last week of June and first week of July were at the same time as the first 10 days of Muharram, which are a sacred time for Shia Muslims when they remember the tragedy of Imam Hussain in Karbala. This year, even the mourning ceremonies for Muharram were filled with different references to Iranian nationalism.

In the first night of the ceremonies, Mahmoud Karimi, a prominent eulogist affiliated with the government, drew a lot of attention by reciting an homage to Mohammad Nouri's nationalist song "Ey Iran Iran" (with some references to Karbala in it). Others followed in different cities. Several different groups recited the beloved song “Ey Iran” in their ceremonies. One of my personal favorites was from a reciter in Bushehr reciting a patriotic song in traditional Bushehri fashion that was famously sung by Salar Aghili.

The nationalist spin to the Muharram ceremonies had mixed reactions from Iranians. Some secular people thought this was cynical and just a trick by the government to gain support using a different language than normal. Some religious people also took offense, saying that Imam Hussain’s tragedy is unique and special and moving focus away from him was disrespectful.

In my view, there is no doubt that the government did attempt to use these symbols to rally some support (the Supreme Leader himself, in his first public appearance after the war, explicitly asked Mahmoud Karimi to recite the Ey Iran Iran eulogy again) - but this doesn’t mean that every person doing this was fake. Iranian have always used the language of religion to express themselves in times of difficulty or sorrow. The government (which is also comprised of Iranians) did not create this phenomenon, but jumped on an already existing trend.

Movie Trailers - Saeed Rousatee’s new film “Woman and Child”, which was nominated to compete for the Palm d'Or at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, will start to be shown in Iranian theaters next Thursday

Meanwhile the film “Pir Pesar” (the Old Bachelor) continues to do very well in theaters (even with post war conditions) and is considered by many critics to be one of the best films of the year.

SPORTS

Changes in Coaches - The celebrated Turkish Coach Ismail Kartal unexpectedly quit his job as Persepolis’s head coach, citing family reasons. This almost certainly was due to the war and him deciding he didn’t want to stay in Iran in the future. Vahid Hashemian will be taking over as the interim coach until a replacement is found.

On the other hand, the Portuguese coach Ricardo Sá Pinto was appointed to coach of Esteghlal (this would be his second time leaving the team). Iran’s sports press praised Sá Pinto for agreeing to come to Iran while Kartal was apparently spooked.

Faghani in the Finals - The Iranian referee Alireza Faghani was chosen to officiate the Club World Cup Final in New Jersey. After the match he (along with the rest of the referee team) shook hands with US President Donald Trump, who was at the game. Some conservative figures criticized Faghani for shaking hands with someone who had bombed Iran only weeks before. Faghani was undeterred though and posted a photo of him and the president on his Instagram - a post that got over a million likes.

ACROSS THE WEB

• Persian Language Podcasts: I wrote an article several weeks ago featuring five of the best Persian Language Podcasts on the web right now. Whether you are interested in history, current events, or startups, these are great resources to improve your Persian and stay in touch with Iran.

• Emergent Neo-Nationalism: The researcher Reza Akhbari wrote an interesting article doing a deep dive into the surge of Neo-Nationalism after the war.

• Iran’s Daughters of the Sea: The New Yorker published a piece filled with fantastic photos about the community of fisherwomen in Hengam Island in the Persian Gulf.

• Debate on the Aftermath of the War (Persian Language): The Iranian YouTube Channel Dialogue Iran (based inside Iran) made a four part series called “After the War” which got a lot of attention on social media. I thought they did a good job capturing the wide spectrum of different views in Iranian society on the subject, from those against the government to hardline conservatives. Each part is about an hour.

  Part 1

  Part 2

  Part 3

  Part 4

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